No Mainstream Metaverse Soon

 

Recent improvements and cost reductions in virtual reality headsets have led many people to believe that everyone will soon be wearing headsets every day and meeting up with their friends and coworkers in a virtual metaverse. I think that is highly unlikely for the following reasons:

Multi-tasking

Most people like to multi-task, particularly if they are participating in a meeting from home. It can be hard to participate in any way offline when fully immersed in a virtual reality experience. 

Mobility

This is closely related to the previous point. Almost all current video conferencing apps can be accessed on computers, tablets or phones. This allows people to use them anywhere. Driving to an appointment in a virtual reality headset would be the worst form of distracted driving.

Facial Expressions

The primary reason we prefer video calls over voice calls is the ability to see the faces and facial expressions of the people we are talking to. Conversing with a coworker's avatar is unlikely to be as rich of an experience.

Network Effects

Before it can go mainstream, any new communication tool must be adapted by a large percentage of the population. In 2019 and 2020, we were able to pivot from in-person meetings to virtual meetings quickly because the platforms worked using microphones and cameras in the computers and phones that we already owned. With the metaverse, a significant investment in new hardware will be required for every user. 

People will be reluctant to schedule metaverse meetings unless everyone invited has the hardware. People will be reluctant to buy the hardware until they start getting invitations to metaverse meetings. It is a cycle that is difficult to break.

What do you think? How soon do you think the metaverse will go mainstream?

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Looking Forward

Note: This is the last regularly scheduled post for a while.

Nature is a Grand Material Engineer

 

Artist, Designer and Engineer, Neri Oxman by Noah Kalina

"Nature is a grand material engineer, we already know that it can generate abalone shells which are twice as strong as our high-tech ceramics and silk that is five times stronger than Steel."                                                                                Neri Oxman

MIT Media Lab Professor, Neri Oxman, and her students are committed to learning and applying the processes of nature to address the architectural challenges of the modern world. Their studies have included silk worms, bees, and plants to gain understanding in how nature grows structures. 

In addition to their structural relevance, the projects Oxman and her team have created are also beautiful works of art. Her work is part of the permanent collections a number of museums in the United States and Europe including the Museum of Modern Art and the San Francisco Museum of Modern Art.

Pnuema 2 by Neri Oxman, Photo by John Cummings

In 2016, the group published a paper on a 3D Printed Multimaterial Microfluid Valve which provides better control in printing using fluid materials including molten glass. While it had been possible before to 3D print with glass by binding glass powder and subsequently sintering the powders, the results were not fully transparent. The MIT process provides structural control and full transparency.

3D Printed Glass by Neri Oxman

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Heroes on the Russian Border

Vytautas Landsbergis (in the middle) on 11 March 1990, after the promulgation of the Act of the Re-Establishment of the State of Lithuania.

Photographer Paulius Lileikis. Lithuanian Central State Archives

Last weekend, my wife an I attended the True/False documentary film festival in Columbia, Missouri. We have been attending True/False annually since 2011 and it is always the most enlightening event of our year. This year we saw eight full length films and ten shorts. Several were the first public showings of new films.

After each film, I turned my phone back on to check on the news from Ukraine. It is amazing that the Ukrainian people have been able to hold out this long against the Russian invasion and I believe that everyone who supports democracy and self determination admires the courage of the Ukrainian citizens and their president Volodymr Zelenskyy.

The four hour film we saw on Sunday morning was a reminder that Zelenskyy wasn't the first leader to show great courage on the borders of Russia. Mr. Landsbergis features Vytautas Landsbergis, the man who led the declaration of independence of Lithuania from the Soviet Union in March of 1990. The Soviet Union responded to the declaration with an economic blockade that failed. 

On January 11-13, 1991, the Soviet Union sent troops and tanks into the city of Vilnius to intimidate the Lithuanians into submission. The city was mostly defended by unarmed civilians, men and women, who stood up to the invasion. In some cases the tanks ran over civilians and the troops fired in the crowds. It was painful to watch knowing that the same thing was happening again in Ukraine while we were watching the film.

Unarmed Lithuanian citizen standing against a Soviet tank. Photographer Andrius Petrulevičius.

Fortunately, in 1991, the revulsion of the rest of the world led Soviet President Gorbachev to withdraw the troops from Lithuania and a treaty signed by the new Russian Federation President Boris Yeltsin and Landsbergis formally recognized the independence of Lithuania. Let's hope something similar happens in Ukraine.

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Adam Curtis at the True/False Film Festival

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Creative Inspiration for the Hunger Games

Clarity on Freedom of Speech

Constitution of the United States - U.S. National Archives

Last week, Russia's communications regulation agency announced that it would block websites that refer to the war in Ukraine as an "attack, invasion, or declaration of war." They are also targeting publications that mention the shelling of Ukrainian cities or civilian casualties. This is not surprising. Authoritarian regimes always tightly control the media to prevent their citizens from learning the truth. 

Freedom of the speech is one of the most important protections of a democratic society which is why it comes first in the United States Bill of rights. However, since the beginning of last year, there has been significant whining by people who should know better about violations of their right to free speech. Even people who have sworn to uphold the U.S. Constitution have apparently not actually read it. I believe it is helpful to clarify a few points about the First Amendment. 

Limits Only Governmental Action

The text of the First Amendment reads: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press, or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances. 

This wording clearly limits only the power of the US Congress to limit free expression. However, subsequent Supreme Court cases, including Gitlow vs. New York in 1925, have incorporated the the language of the Fourteenth Amendment ("No state shall...deprive and person of life, liberty or property without due process of law") to apply the First Amendment restrictions to governments at the state and local levels.

Newspaper, book publishers, websites and social media platforms are not government agencies so they are not limited by the first amendment. When Twitter, Facebook and other site removed the accounts of the former President for violating their content rules, they were not violating his free speech rights.  In fact, they were exercising their own First Amendment right to edit their content responsibly.

Josh Hawley encouraging the protesters about to attack the Capital

Similarly, when Simon & Schuster decided not to publish Missouri Senator Josh Hawley's The Tyranny of Big Tech, they were not infringing his rights. They were simply making their free choice not to be associated with a repugnant individual. Hawley could and did find a different publisher with lower standards. 

Inciting or Producing Imminent Lawless Action

Others trying to misinterpret the U.S. Constitution are the members of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys organizations that planned the January 6th, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capital. Supporters of these groups have claimed that what happened in Washington that day was "legitimate political discourse" protected by the First Amendment. The Supreme Court is unlikely to agree.

In Brandenburg vs. Ohio, in 1969, the Supreme Court ruled that "A state may not forbid speech advocating the use of force or unlawful conduct unless this advocacy is directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and likely to incite or produce such action." Since the encouragement of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, and probably Trump and Hawley, produced imminent lawless action, it falls clearly outside of the First Amendment protections.

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The News Worth Reading

 

After posting about Embracing the Inverted Pyramid, I was asked to provide examples of great news sources. Here are the sites that I browse daily.

• The Wall Street Journal - A detailed source for business news in both the United States and Worldwide. 
• The Columbia Missourian - This is my source for local news in Columbia Missouri and the University of Missouri. I believe everyone should subscribe to their local newspaper.
• BBC News- The best English source that I have found for UK and world news. It also frequently reports events in the United States that are not covered elsewhere.
• The Washington Post - Great investigative reporting and information about governmental and political topics.
• The New York Times - A good source of US and world news and my favorite place to keep up-to-date on cultural themes.
• The Economist - The Economist has a daily World in Brief which is an extremely concise and precise overview of world news. The Weekly Edition is an in depth analysis of world events and trends including the probable social and economic results of those events.

Most of these sources require a subscription, but the quality of the information is worth it. 

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Embrace the Inverted Pyramid

 

The Inverted Pyramid by the Air Force Departmental Publishing Office

Managing a business, allocating capital in a portfolio, or creating a personal development plan, all depend upon a reasonable forecast of future social and economic conditions. Keeping up-to-date on the current news is an essential part of forecasting. The challenge is following the news in a reasonable amount of time each day.

The secret to efficient news consumption is to seek out sources that employ the inverted pyramid style and include the most important information in the opening paragraph. Journalists are trained to include the who, what, why, when, where and how in the opening sentences. This allows the reader to grasp the most important news in a single glance and decide whether or not to read more. Since the online versions of most major newspapers display the headline and the opening sentence of each article on their home page, they make it easy to browse everything quickly.

When opening a story to learn more, the lead paragraph will be followed by other important details with the most important items first. As soon as you feel you understand the what you need, you can stop reading. The final paragraphs will be general and background material. In many cases, you will already be familiar with the background information and do not need to read it again.

Front Page of the New York Times Online

The inverted pyramid style used by major newspapers is in stark contrast to the hook and delay process used by most television news broadcasts. These broadcasts start with a teaser that they will include an important insight later in the broadcast then proceed to something completely different. Continuing to watch will waiting for the insight generally results in a frustrating disappointment.

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Hoping to Hear Another Like Yasmin

 

Guitarist Yasmin Williams by Amr Alfiky/New York Times

In three weeks, my wife and I will be attending the True/False documentary film festival in Columbia, Missouri. It is the most fun and most enlightening weekend event we attend each year. The entire downtown becomes a celebration as filmmakers visit from around the world to screen their films and answer audience questions.

While the films are amazing, some of my favorite parts are the musicians who play before each screening. They are always an eclectic and enthusiastic group of young, not quite famous yet, artists with a variety of new and unique approaches to sound.

Last year, and the year before, we greatly enjoyed listening to Yasmin Williams. She plays solo guitar expressively in a style which combines elements of folk, flamenco, and classical guitar. Words don't do the music justice, so watch the video. 

Yasmin won't be playing at True/False this year. We are hoping to discover some other new talents that we will enjoy just as much.

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The Impossible Movie

No Beauty Without Strangeness

Dakota Fanning by Karl Lagerfeld for Harpers Bazaar

"I don't like standard beauty - there is no beauty without strangeness"    Karl Lagerfeld

Fashion Design and Photography have always traveled hand-in-hand. Rarely have both skills been combined in the same individual as they were in Karl Lagerfeld. As Creative Director of Chanel from 1983 until his death in 2019, he revitalized the brand originally created by Coco Chanel and brought it forward into the 21st century. 

In addition to his role in fashion design, Lagerfeld was also responsible for Chanel's publicity shots each season. He developed a unique, avante-garde, style which make his iconic images instantly recognizable. The images below were featured in different issues of Harpers Bazaar magazine.

Candice Swanepoel by Karl Lagerfeld

Rosie Huntington-Whiteley by Karl Lagerfeld

Gigi Hadid by Karl Lagerfeld

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Yes is More

Copenhill Waste-to-Energy Plant, Image from BIG

On December 6th of 2021, BIG's CopenHill Amager Bakke project was named World Building of the Year at the World Architecture Festival. The project exhibits BIG founder Bjork Ingels' philosophy of hedonistic sustainability by combining a power plant project with a ski slope, hiking trail and climbing wall.

Ingels points out that architecture often varies between two opposing extremes; "an avant-garde full of crazy ideas, originating from philosophy or mysticism; and the well organized corporate consultants that build predictable and boring boxes of high standard." Ingels and his firm focus on a third way which they describe as "a pragmatic utopian architecture that creates socially, economically and environmentally perfect places as a practical objective."

One of my favorite of Ingels' projects is the 82 foot-high Mountain Dwellings built in the Orestad district of Copenhagen. By arranging apartments in a diagonally sloping scheme, the mountain themed complex provides spacious apartments with each including a 1000 square foot south-facing terrace. After completion in 2008, it received several prestigious awards including the World Architecture Festival Housing Award,

Mountain Dwellings, Image by BIG

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Two Historical "Greats"

 

Grand Duchess Catherine Alexeevna by L.Caravaque

I have just finished reading two fascinating biographies of monarchs so respected by their subjects and the world that they have been proclaimed with the title "The Great." Emperor Peter the First and Empress Catherine the Second, who led Russia during 18th century Russia transformed their country in ways that prepared it for the modern world and greatly improved the standard of living of its citizens.

Both were autocratic monarchs as were the leaders of almost all countries at the time. Both were also successful military strategists that enlarged the Russian empire and made the borders of their country more secure.  But those are not the traits that earned them their claim to greatness.

Both Peter, and Catherine two generations later, were declared great because of their intellectual curiosity, willingness to bring experts and expertise from around the world to Russia, and the enthusiasm to use those ideas to transform their country.

Peter the First by Jean-Marc Nattier

Peter was raised in a mostly medieval society, reluctant to embrace any new ideas and under strict control of an extremely conservative Orthodox Church. Early in his life, he realized that breaking Russia's isolationism would require a navy and he traveled to the Netherlands to personally learn the art of ship building. He also selected intellectually curious Russians to travel to all of the major capitals of Europe and learn the state-of-the-art methods for manufacturing and governance. When they encountered exceptional teachers, they persuaded them to come back with them to Russia to assist in the country's transformation. Included in the immigrants to Russia were the great architects who built the beautiful city of St. Petersburg. 

Catherine was a child of the enlightenment who read and corresponded with French and Swiss philosophers like Voltaire, Diderot, and Rousseau. She also traveled throughout Russia and listened patiently to the concerns of the Russian nobility and the Russian Serfs. Catherine brought European political and judicial processes to Russia along with literature, art, architecture and medicine. She built hospitals, schools and orphanages while assembling the greatest art gallery in Europe. She even persuaded her citizens to be inoculated against smallpox.

If intellectual curiosity and openness to new ideas is the hallmark of greatness, we need to ask what our leaders have been doing in the 20th century that could be classified as great. Regardless of political party, the restrictions on travel, low limits on H-1B visas, and attacks on freedom of speech indicate our leaders appear to be governed mostly by fear; fear of terrorists, fear of infection, fear of people willing to study harder or work harder.

If we truly want to reach our greatest potential, we need to open our minds to new ideas and our country to those who can help us implement new ideas.

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Good Grief

 

Since listening to Amanda Gorman read her poem, The Hill We Climb, during President Biden's inauguration, I have been eagerly waiting for her to publish a book with more of her poems. Her book, Call Us What we Carry, was released late last year and I had an opportunity to read it during the holidays.

The poetry focuses intensely on the emotional experience of living through the Covid 19 pandemic. It addresses the fears, stress, and feelings of loss over the last two years. Even those who did not lose loved ones lost the ability to spend time with loved ones and lost the normality of their previous lives.

It is also a book full of hope, recognizing that the experience has changed us in powerful ways. One of my favorites is titled Good Grief and here are a few excerpts:

The hurt is how we know

We are alive & awake;

It clears us for all the exquisite,

Excruciating enormities to come.

We are pierced new by the turning 

Forward.

All that is grave need

Not be a burden, an anguish.

Call it, instead, an anchor,

Grief grounding us in its sea.

We are built up again

By what we 

Build/find/see/say/remember/know.

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Technology Trends for 2022

 

 Kia EV6 launching early 2022

The start of a new year is always an exciting time to consider the technologies that will receive the greatest attention and have the greatest impact in the upcoming months. Here are a few of the top trends for 2022.

Energy Storage

This will be a year of significant investment in battery manufacturing and improvements in design to reduce costs and increase vehicle range. Expect to see announcements about solid state battery designs and substitution of some lithium components with other materials including nickle and silicon. These developments will help drive growth in electric vehicles and wearables.

Electrification of Transportation

This will be a year of growing market share in new vehicles with electric or hybrid drive trains. This will be influenced by the advances in energy storage listed above as well as improvements in energy harvesting, electric motors and use of advanced materials and in-mold electronics to reduce vehicle weight. Several new models will be introduced through the year and even more in early 2023.

Artificial Intelligence in Engineering

Expanded and more sophisticated uses of artificial intelligence in design will lead to faster development of pharmaceuticals, more interactive web stores and weight reduction in automotive and aeronautic applications. Generative AI combined with improvements in additive manufacturing is particularly promising for enabling the early electrification of small aircraft. Artificial intelligence will also play an increasing role in the photographic industry.

Keep an eye on these trends as you allocate your research time and investment plans for the upcoming year.

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