Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Paradox of Certainty

Melting Dice
Probability Stories by Iruhdam
The world we live in is a complex place.  The impact of any event or
policy change is the result of a chaotic interplay between millions or
billions of individuals acting in ways that may not always be
rational. The probability of any particular result is almost never 0%
or 100%.

Whenever I hear a talk radio host or television commentator
belligerently proclaiming  the certainty of their particular view of
the future, I wonder whether they haven't thought things through
carefully or they're just being dishonest.

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Changing the Odds
Collision of Ideas
Choose the Difficult Assignment

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