No Mainstream Metaverse Soon

 

Recent improvements and cost reductions in virtual reality headsets have led many people to believe that everyone will soon be wearing headsets every day and meeting up with their friends and coworkers in a virtual metaverse. I think that is highly unlikely for the following reasons:

Multi-tasking

Most people like to multi-task, particularly if they are participating in a meeting from home. It can be hard to participate in any way offline when fully immersed in a virtual reality experience. 

Mobility

This is closely related to the previous point. Almost all current video conferencing apps can be accessed on computers, tablets or phones. This allows people to use them anywhere. Driving to an appointment in a virtual reality headset would be the worst form of distracted driving.

Facial Expressions

The primary reason we prefer video calls over voice calls is the ability to see the faces and facial expressions of the people we are talking to. Conversing with a coworker's avatar is unlikely to be as rich of an experience.

Network Effects

Before it can go mainstream, any new communication tool must be adapted by a large percentage of the population. In 2019 and 2020, we were able to pivot from in-person meetings to virtual meetings quickly because the platforms worked using microphones and cameras in the computers and phones that we already owned. With the metaverse, a significant investment in new hardware will be required for every user. 

People will be reluctant to schedule metaverse meetings unless everyone invited has the hardware. People will be reluctant to buy the hardware until they start getting invitations to metaverse meetings. It is a cycle that is difficult to break.

What do you think? How soon do you think the metaverse will go mainstream?

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Looking Forward

Note: This is the last regularly scheduled post for a while.

Facebook is Preparing us for Virtual Reality

Last week's announcement by Facebook that they are adding support for 360 degree video and the release of the 360 degree Star Wars video are certainly intended to help prepare us for the upcoming release of the Oculus Rift virtual reality headset.

I watched the video on my desktop computer which is a different experience than a fully immersive headset. You can look in any direction and see what is happening by dragging the screen with the mouse, but I am sure it would feel more natural if the direction of view happened automatically when I turned my head.

However, I question whether video can ever be a fully immersive experience. While it is interesting to be able to look in different directions, in the real world you could also change the speed and direction of travel. Changing the direction of view only leaves me with the feeling of being an observer rather than a participant.

What are your feelings about the 360 degree video capability?

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Oculus Rift headset image by Rebke Klokke

Last week I attended the SIGGRAPH conference at the LA Convention Center. The name is an acronym for the Special Interest Group for Graphics, one of the largest special interest groups in the Association of Computer Machinery. 

For me, the SIGGRAPH conference is one of the most educational and inspirational experiences of the year. It is the best place to learn what is technically possible in the field of imaging as well as how the technology works.

Every SIGGRAPH seems to have one overwhelming theme and this year the focus was on Virtual Reality. It  was like 1992 all over again, but without the supercomputers. I remember being awed 23 years ago by the demonstrations with ten pound headsets tethered to computers that were larger than my office. Despite the hype at the time, there were few applications that could justify the expense of the hardware and the content development.

This time, the headsets are smaller, lighter and driven by the GPU board in a desktop computer or by a smartphone. In a session titled The Renaissance of VR, Ron Azuma of Intel Labs gave three reasons why virtual reality will be successful this time:

• Performance - The graphic performance of the new generation of devices is high enough to provide compelling immersive experiences.
• Price - The new hardware is cheap enough that many people will be able to afford and experience virtual reality first hand.
• Investment - The huge investments being made by several large companies will lead to high quality hardware and content.

Interestingly, Azuma concluded that augmented reality might have an even bigger future than virtual reality.

In what reality would you like to be immersed?

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